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15 years
I don´t think so....
Not NOW with the dollar sooooooo high.
Right now, 1 dollar is $3.66 so hostels are making a good buck...
Maybe at the end of 2010 when the economic hassle finds a way...
From my point of view, there are a few factors to mention that hostels will have tough times in Buenos Aires
a) There are too many for a demand that does exist but with the crisis may fall
b) "Real" (brazilian currency) is also dropping its value, and Rio and brazil in general are better known or more attractive than Buenos Aires in backpacker's mind. If u think about that, before the 2001 economic crisis in Argentina, Buenos Aires barely had hostels, because there were not many backpackers. It was only due to the crisis and the "Real" being so high in comparison with the "Peso" (argentinian currency) that Argentina revived from its ashes in terms of tourism...
c) Many hostels in Buenos Aires don't know how to run themselves. People opened hostels there just for the sake of it (actually thinking that it was good business - which i reckon it is) but had no idea on how to run a hostel, so those are the ones that will struggle...This is a fact, I have been approched twice in the last 2 months regarding people that opened hostels within the last 2 years and want to get rid of them. Why ??? Because even though the business is not being properly run, the property is worth a lot of money still.
d) San Telmo, a highly backpackers area, is becoming slowly less attractive for backpackers, being Palermo and Microcentro the remaining areas and Boedo the new area to be discovered...How many hostels do u have in San Telmo, i could easily name u a dozen....how many of those are brand new hostels (meaning opened during the last year)
e) HI Argentina is really well organized (monopolized if u want to put it that way as well)(Despite all their failures, HI Argentina is running a superb job of rotating passenger within HI hostels, which takes that huge market out of hostels outside the chain). Iguazu, Salta, Mendoza, Calafate, they are not an issue as HI has not too many beds in those destinations, but...Buenos Aires, they have (someone correct me if iam wrong) 12 hostels being that over 1500+ beds easy....This is not a BIG deal if u already have your own market (e.g. Estoril Hostel - Best rated hostel in Hostelworld for Buenos Aires - number 7 in the world - not a HI member) but for all the newbies.....
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But, they are not all bad facts, let's be a little bit positive about all this...
a) in the last 9 years, Argentina in general has done a great improvement in its tourism infrastructure (good policies mostly) and had the chance to show herself to the world, before being shadowed by Brazil.
b) It is said that the argentinian peso will drop even more, so even though the "Real" might drop, if the "Peso" keeps dropping it won't matter much.
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